Market Insights

Phoenix Valuations’ monthly blog capturing national and local trends impacting the real estate and appraisal market.

Phoenix Metro Economic Conditions

Last Updated September 16, 2024

Canadian buyers snap up even more Arizona residential real estate (Bizjournals.com)

Arizona ranks as a top destination for foreign real estate buyers, with Canadians making up 60% of this group. Arizona remains a highly ranked destination, currently 4th in the U.S. for international real estate investment. Notably, Canadians are drawn to Arizona for second homes and business opportunities, contributing significantly to the state's economy. Phoenix is also seeing strong demand for air travel from Canada, signaling a continued positive trend in cross-border connections.

BNSF rail, logistics megaproject adds up to $3.2 billion investment (Bizjournals.com)

BNSF is investing $3.2 billion in Logistics Park Phoenix, a 4,300-acre intermodal and logistics hub in northwest metro Phoenix. This project will enhance freight transport, create thousands of jobs, and generate $7.2 billion annually in economic activity. While some residents are concerned, it's set to boost Arizona's competitiveness and attract many new businesses, with construction starting in 2025.

London AI health care company establishes US HQ in Phoenix (Bizjournals.com)

London-based MiiHealth has chosen Phoenix for its U.S. headquarters, marking a key step in the AI healthcare company's expansion. Located in the Phoenix Bioscience Core, MiiHealth aims to drive innovation in senior care through its AI health monitoring system. MiiHealth's expansion highlights Phoenix's growing role as a hub for international healthcare innovation.

Sale of newly built Paradise Valley mansion sets new Arizona record (Bizjournals.com)

Joshua Peters of Stately Development has made waves in Arizona's luxury real estate market by setting new records with a $32.39 million sale of a Paradise Valley mansion—the most expensive residential property ever sold in the state. This follows two other significant sales in 2024, including a $20.975 million home, underscoring the growth and demand in Arizona’s high-end real estate market. Paradise Valley, in particular, has seen a 34% appreciation in recent years, with rising costs in materials and labor pushing new speculative construction prices up to as much as $2,000 per square foot. The area has become a top destination for national and international luxury buyers.

Major data center projects by Pacific Proving and Merit Partners projects receive approval (Bizjournals.com)

The Mesa City Council's approval of two major data center projects highlights Arizona's growing role as a leading hub for tech infrastructure. With Pacific Proving Technology Campus and Merit Legacy Technology Park adding nearly 2.7 million square feet of data center space, these developments contribute to the 14.8 million square feet planned or under construction in Mesa. This expansion reflects Arizona’s rise to No. 5 in the nation for data center development in 2023, attracting tech giants like Google, Meta, and Amazon, and driving economic growth, job creation, and technological advancement in the state.

DAS Technology moves into new penthouse office at Fashion Square (Bizjournals.com)

DAS Technology’s move to a new 16,292-square-foot penthouse in Scottsdale strengthens Arizona’s growing tech sector. With 90 employees in the Scottsdale office and over 170 company-wide, the expansion highlights Arizona's role as a hub for innovation. The company's recent growth, including a 120% rise in dealer and manufacturer subscriptions, further boosts the state’s reputation in the tech industry.

Matson Money CEO sells Paradise Valley mansion on billionaire's row for record $21 million (Bizjournals.com)

Mark Matson, CEO of Matson Money, has sold his Paradise Valley mansion for a record-breaking $20.975 million in an all-cash deal, the highest-priced residential sale in Arizona for 2024. President of Phoenix Valuations, Andrew Turley has appraised the $20.975 million Paradise Valley estate on multiple occasions and praised the property as a "Cape Cod/Contemporary masterpiece with epic finishes and amenities that Disney World would envy." Turley highlighted the home’s prime location in the exclusive "Billionaire’s Row," a top-tier area in Paradise Valley known for its luxury properties. He noted the rising value of real estate in the area, where land prices have roughly doubled since 2020, further elevating Paradise Valley’s status in the luxury residential market.

Data center developer Tract pays $136 million for massive West Valley site (Bizjournals.com)

Tract's $20 billion investment in a master-planned data center campus in Buckeye is a major win for Arizona, further solidifying the state's position as a top tech hub. The project, set to create 500 full-time jobs and 2,000 construction jobs, will significantly boost the local economy and support Arizona's growing data center industry. With Phoenix now ranking fourth in the nation for data center inventory, Tract’s campus will meet the increasing demand for AI and cloud services, attracting major tech players and reinforcing Arizona's reputation as a leader in technology and innovation.

Realtor survey points to expected increase in buyer traffic (PhoenixAgentMagazine.com)

The latest NAR Confidence Index Survey shows an uptick in buyer confidence, with 16% of Realtors expecting an increase in buyer traffic in the next three months, up from 13% a month ago. Seller traffic expectations remained flat at 17%. In July, 24% of homes sold above list price, down from 29% the previous month, and 62% of homes sold in under a month, a decrease from 65% in June. The average home received 2.7 offers, while 8% of buyers purchased based solely on virtual tours, reflecting ongoing inventory challenges and technology use. First-time buyers made up 29% of sales, while 27% of buyers paid in cash.

Magna's massive Mesa factory to assemble Waymo vehicles (Bizjournals.com)

Waymo's partnership with Magna International in Mesa marks a significant boost for Arizona's role in the autonomous vehicle industry. Magna's 230,000-square-foot facility will integrate Waymo's self-driving technology into electric Jaguar SUVs, further expanding Waymo's operations in the Phoenix area. This collaboration reinforces Phoenix's standing as a key market for Waymo, which now provides over 100,000 autonomous rides per week. Waymo's continued growth in Arizona, including airport service and expanding ride-hailing coverage, underscores the state's importance in the future of autonomous driving and mobility innovation.

Metro Phoenix achieves a balanced housing market, but buyers still have an advantage in 4 cities (Bizjournals.com)

The metro Phoenix housing market is balanced for the first time since 2014, with buyers and sellers having similar leverage. While some West Valley cities remain buyer's markets, areas like Phoenix and Glendale still favor sellers. The median home price rose to $445,000 in August, but price growth is slowing. Experts predict a surge in buyer activity as interest rates drop, offering a short opportunity to purchase before competition increases, though inventory remains tight due to low mortgage rates.

Land prices are soaring in the Valley's luxury market. Here's where values are headed (Bizjournals.com)

Andrew Turley, president of Phoenix Valuations, has been closely tracking the skyrocketing land prices in Arizona's luxury markets. His research reveals that land prices in areas like Paradise Valley and Arcadia have doubled over the past three years. This rise in land costs has significantly impacted home prices, with new homes in Paradise Valley starting at $10 million, compared to $5 million just a few years ago. Despite higher mortgage rates, the luxury market remains strong, with two-thirds of buyers paying in cash. Custom homebuilding is also thriving, with permits and home closings both up year over year.

Newly built Paradise Valley luxury estate sold for huge price (Bizjournals.com)

Phoenix Valuations President Andrew Turley noted that the recent $18.75 million sale of a Paradise Valley estate at $1,808 per square foot highlights the strength of Arizona's ultra-luxury market, which continues to see robust demand. The property, developed by Joshua Peters, founder of Stately Living at Realty One Group, is the most expensive spec home ever sold in Paradise Valley and the highest residential sale in Arizona this year. Sold in an all-cash deal, this transaction reflects the increasing momentum in the luxury home market, as Paradise Valley remains a hotspot for high-end real estate development.

Korean semiconductor company picks Mesa for largest US facility (Bizjournals.com)

KoMiCo’s new facility in Mesa will boost Arizona’s status as a major hub for the semiconductor industry, creating 200 new jobs and furthering the state's leadership in high-tech manufacturing. This facility will support innovation and drive further economic growth in the region. KoMiCo’s choice to expand in Mesa underscores Arizona’s growing influence in the global semiconductor ecosystem. With a $50 million investment, KoMiCo will enhance the local supply chain by offering advanced cleaning and coating services for semiconductor equipment. The expansion strengthens Arizona's growing relationship with South Korea and complements the state’s existing semiconductor giants like Taiwan Semiconductor and Intel.

Phoenix has top industrial leases in US in 2024 (Bizjournals.com)

Metro Phoenix's No. 6 ranking for the largest industrial leases and renewals in 2024 highlights the area's growing appeal for major businesses, with five deals totaling 4.6 million square feet. Companies like Amazon, Sub-Zero, and Logistics Plus are choosing Phoenix for its business-friendly environment, strategic location, and proximity to California’s ports. The region's industrial sector has expanded by 170 million square feet in the past decade, fueling job creation and economic growth. With demand expected to balance by 2025, Phoenix remains an attractive hub for continued investment and growth.

Phoenix among best in nation for real estate growth since 1980 (Bizjournals.com)

Phoenix ranks as the second-best U.S. city for real estate development from 1980 to 2023, according to a new StorageCafe study, trailing only Houston. The city leads in single-family housing permits with over 215,000 issued and ranks in the top 10 across all major sectors, including industrial, multifamily, retail, office, and self-storage. Phoenix is No. 3 for industrial development with 127 million square feet built, reinforcing its status as a top market for growth. The city's consistent performance highlights its long-standing appeal for real estate development.

Apartment construction surges nationwide and in Phoenix (PhoenixAgentMagazine.com)

Phoenix is poised to be a leader in the U.S. apartment construction boom, ranking No. 4 among major metro areas with over 20,000 new units expected to be completed in 2024, according to a study by RentCafe. This surge reflects a 9% national increase in apartment construction compared to last year, driven by rising demand and Phoenix’s growing reputation as a hub for environmentally conscious businesses and residents. Phoenix remains a key market with strong demand and job growth, making it an attractive location for future investment.

Utah data center firm gears up for first Arizona project (Bizjournals.com)

Novva Data Centers is planning a 1.4 million-square-foot campus in Mesa, its first Arizona project, featuring data halls, offices, and public spaces. The project, called "Project Borealis," is expected to complete its first data center by late 2026. Mesa is becoming a major data center hub, with companies like Google and Amazon contributing to 14.8 million square feet of planned or under-construction data center space.

RK Logistics Group expands to Tempe to work with semiconductor clients (Bizjournals.com)

RK Logistics Group's new Tempe facility will enhance the semiconductor supply chain in Phoenix, supporting the region's booming industry. The strategically located warehouse near Sky Harbor Airport will provide key logistics and transportation services. As RK Logistics expands its Arizona team, the facility is set to boost local economic growth in the coming months.

Michigan agents sue NAR, claim membership requirement to access MLS violates federal law (PhoenixAgentMagazine.com)

Three Michigan real estate agents filed a class-action lawsuit against NAR, claiming mandatory membership for MLS access violates federal law. This follows NAR’s new rules eliminating guaranteed broker commissions and requiring written buyer’s agent agreements.

Phoenix still tops the nation in industrial construction (Bizjournals.com)

Phoenix leads the nation in industrial construction, with nearly 40 million square feet of space underway, including major projects like Lucid Group’s EV factory expansion. This surge will expand the city's industrial supply by almost 10%, positioning Phoenix for continued growth. While a temporary slowdown is expected through 2025, build-to-suit developments are set to drive future expansion.

Housing inventory reaches post-pandemic high as market continues to balance (AtlantaAgentMagazine.com)

Housing inventory reached its highest post-pandemic level in July, providing a more buyer-friendly market, according to Realtor.com’s Monthly Housing Markets Trends Report. The number of homes for sale increased by 36.6% compared to last year. Homes are staying on the market longer, with the typical home spending 50 days on the market in July. As mortgage rates decline and more sellers list their homes, this trend is expected to continue, making the market more balanced for buyers.

Closed sales increase year over year in the Phoenix Valley (PhoenixAgentMagazine.com)

Closed sales in Phoenix increased by 7% in July compared to the same month last year, surpassing 5,000 transactions, according to Phoenix REALTORS®. Goodyear saw the largest jump with a 41.1% increase, while Phoenix and Mesa also experienced growth. The median sales price in Greater Phoenix rose 1.7% to $473,000, signaling a pause in dramatic price increases. Scottsdale's median price surged 22.2% to $1.2 million, and listings spent 8.6% fewer days on the market compared to last year.

City of Tempe looks to redevelop former Performing Arts Center into high-rise tower (Bizjournals.com)

Tempe is seeking a developer to create a new high-rise in the Mill Avenue district, replacing the former Tempe Performing Arts Center. The city envisions a mixed-use building with residential units for various income levels, office space, and commercial areas, enhancing the area’s appeal near Tempe Town Lake and Arizona State University. Tempe leaders view this as an exciting opportunity to boost economic development and provide much-needed affordable housing in one of the metro's most vibrant submarkets.

Dream Finders, one of nation's largest homebuilders, snatches up lots south of Phoenix (Bizjournals.com)

Dream Finders Homes has expanded its presence in Arizona, acquiring 123 lots in Maricopa for $13.84 million. The national homebuilder plans to break ground on new homes, priced from the mid-$300,000s, by September, aiming to meet growing housing demand fueled by local employment growth. With major industrial projects in the area, including Intel’s expansion, Dream Finders sees strong potential for the Phoenix metro and Maricopa markets.

History of the Phoenix Metro Market

Real Estate Appraiser

The following serves as a narrative arch from a macro sense of the Phoenix Metro market and its cyclical market expressions over years and longer periods of times.  The narrative although is not relevant to the recent considerations in the current marketplace that are affecting the local market conditions.